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Rate Estimation

Agile Rates shows tomorrow's prices as soon as there is data to show them from, and marks anything that is still an estimate with a 🔮 next to the rate.

The estimate comes from the earlier 60-minute slot wholesale auctions, which Nord Pool and EPEX SPOT publish at around 10 AM UK time. Those prices are real market data, but they are for hour-long blocks and are not the auction Octopus actually uses to set your tariff.

The confirmed rate comes from the EPEX SPOT 30-minute slot auction, published at around 4 PM UK time. Once that has run, the 🔮 disappears and the rate shown is the final one that Octopus will apply.

What an estimate is good for

An estimate is most useful for the decision you have to make today: whether it is worth shifting a charge, a run of the dishwasher, or a battery cycle from this evening to tomorrow. It gives you the shape of tomorrow, showing which hours look cheap and which look expensive, before the confirmed prices exist.

It is not a promise. The 30-minute auction can move in either direction, so treat the 🔮 as a reasonable guide for planning, not as the amount you will be billed.

If you need the exact figure, check back after 4 PM.

Source markers

Normally each half-hour slot is priced from the average of the two wholesale sources, Nord Pool and EPEX SPOT. When only one of them has published a figure, the average is not used and a suffix tells you which source the rate came from:

  • (E) - EPEX SPOT only
  • (N) - Nord Pool only

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